2024/31 | LEM Working Paper Series | |
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Shockflation in the EU: sectoral shocks, cost-push inflation and structural asymmetries in core and periphery countries |
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Vicente Ferreira, Joao Pedro Ferreira, Dario Guarascio and Francesco Zezza |
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Keywords | ||
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Inflation, Supply chain shocks, Input-Output, Core-periphery
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JEL Classifications | ||
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C67, E31, E61
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Abstract | ||
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The return of inflation in Western economies has fueled the debate on
its main drivers, bringing sector-specific shocks and supply chain
bottlenecks to the forefront. Building on the seminal approach of
Weber et al. (2024), this paper develops a method to assess the degree
of exposure to these shocks in EU countries. Using inter-country
input-output data stemming from the FIGARO database, we identify
systemically significant sectors in four regions within the EU: Core,
Southern Periphery, Eastern Periphery, and financial hubs. We also
analyze exposure to foreign shocks. Two main conclusions can be drawn:
on the one hand, periphery countries are more exposed to shocks
originating in the EU core than the other way around; on the other
hand, all EU regions are considerably exposed to price shocks
originating from non-EU countries (namely, Russia and China). The
strategic dependencies of the block pose challenges for price
stability and require targeted policies.
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