2024/31 LEM Working Paper Series

Shockflation in the EU: sectoral shocks, cost-push inflation and structural asymmetries in core and periphery countries

Vicente Ferreira, Joao Pedro Ferreira, Dario Guarascio and Francesco Zezza
  Keywords
 
Inflation, Supply chain shocks, Input-Output, Core-periphery
  JEL Classifications
 
C67, E31, E61
  Abstract
 
The return of inflation in Western economies has fueled the debate on its main drivers, bringing sector-specific shocks and supply chain bottlenecks to the forefront. Building on the seminal approach of Weber et al. (2024), this paper develops a method to assess the degree of exposure to these shocks in EU countries. Using inter-country input-output data stemming from the FIGARO database, we identify systemically significant sectors in four regions within the EU: Core, Southern Periphery, Eastern Periphery, and financial hubs. We also analyze exposure to foreign shocks. Two main conclusions can be drawn: on the one hand, periphery countries are more exposed to shocks originating in the EU core than the other way around; on the other hand, all EU regions are considerably exposed to price shocks originating from non-EU countries (namely, Russia and China). The strategic dependencies of the block pose challenges for price stability and require targeted policies.
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