| 2026/12 | LEM Working Paper Series | ||||||||||||||||
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The AI Regime: Technological Trajectories, Infrastructural Control and Industrial Concentration |
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Massimo Moggi |
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Artificial Intelligence; Technological Trajectories; Industrial Concentration; Capital Deepening;
Scaling Laws; Foundation Models; Evolutionary Economics; Infrastructural Control; Digital
Oligopoly; Innovation Dynamics.
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| Abstract | |||||||||||||||||
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This paper analyzes the contemporary development of artificial
intelligence (AI) as a concentrated technological regime characterized
by scaling dynamics, cumulative learning processes, and
infrastructural control. Departing from approaches that treat AI as an
exogenous technological shock, the analysis adopts an evolutionary
perspective in which technological change is path-dependent and
co-evolves with industrial organization and institutional conditions.
The paper argues that industrial concentration in AI is not a
contingent outcome of market imperfections, but an endogenous feature
of the underlying technological trajectory. The dominant search
heuristic -scaling through compute-intensive architectures- privileges
capital deepening, access to large datasets, and control over
computational infrastructures. These features generate increasing
returns, reinforce cumulative advantages, and produce persistent
asymmetries across firms. At the same time, the paper challenges
conventional interpretations of AI-driven productivity
growth. Indicators such as revenue per employee are shown to reflect
monetary measures of value appropriation rather than clearly defined
increases in output. In this context, observed "hyperproductivity" is
better understood as a function of pricing power, control over
proprietary knowledge, and the ability to monetize access to AI
infrastructures. The analysis further shows that the translation of
task-level performance improvements into broader economic outcomes is
structurally mediated. AI systems generate localized efficiency gains,
but their effective deployment depends on organizational
transformation, complementary capabilities, and position within the
technological stack. As a result, diffusion remains uneven and
contingent, and value capture is shaped by industrial structure.
Finally, the paper highlights the material dimension of the AI
trajectory, emphasizing the environmental externalities associated
with large-scale computational infrastructures. These
resource-intensive dynamics are not peripheral, but intrinsic to the
current scaling paradigm and further reinforce barriers to entry and
concentration. Taken together, the paper provides a unified framework
linking technological trajectories, industrial concentration, and
value appropriation, offering a structurally grounded interpretation
of the contemporary AI regime
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