2020/27 | LEM Working Paper Series | ||||||||||||||||
Assessing the Impact of Social Network Structure on the Diffusion of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Generalized Spatial SEIRD Model |
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Giorgio Fagiolo |
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Keywords | |||||||||||||||||
Corona Virus Disease; COVID-19; Diffusion Models on Networks; Spatial SEIRD Models.
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JEL Classifications | |||||||||||||||||
C64, D85
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Abstract | |||||||||||||||||
In this paper, I study epidemic diffusion in a generalized spatial SEIRD model,
where individuals are initially connected in a social or geographical network.
As the virus spreads in the network, the structure of interactions between people
may endogenously change over time, due to quarantining measures and/or spatial-distancing
policies. I explore via simulations the dynamic properties of the co-evolutionary
process dynamically linking disease diffusion and network properties. Results suggest
that, in order to predict how epidemic phenomena evolve in networked populations,
it is not enough to focus on the properties of initial interaction structures.
Indeed, the co-evolution of network structures and compartment shares strongly
shape the process of epidemic diffusion, especially in terms of its speed.
Furthermore, I show that the timing and features of spatial-distancing policies
may dramatically influence their effectiveness.
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