2020/16 | LEM Working Paper Series | ||||||||||||||||
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A multi-scale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world |
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Nicola Bellomo, Richard Bingham, Mark A.J. Chaplain, Giovanni Dosi, Guido Forni, Damian A. Knopoff, John Lowengrub, Reidun Twarock, and Maria Enrica Virgillito |
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Keywords | |||||||||||||||||
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COVID-19; living systems; immune competition; complexity;
multiscale problems; spatial patterns; networks.
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JEL Classifications | |||||||||||||||||
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92C60, 92D30
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Abstract | |||||||||||||||||
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This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic
initiated by an aggressive virus, specifically the so-called SARS–CoV–2
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, corona virus n.2. The study is developed
within a multiscale framework accounting for the interaction of different spatial
scales, from the small scale of the virus itself and cells, to the large scale
of individuals and further up to the collective behaviour of populations. An
interdisciplinary vision is developed thanks to the contributions of epidemiologists,
immunologists and economists as well as those of mathematical
modellers. The first part of the contents is devoted to understanding the
complex features of the system and to the design of a modelling rationale.
The modelling approach is treated in the second part of the paper by showing
both how the virus propagates into infected individuals, successfully and not
successfully recovered, and also the spatial patterns, which are subsequently
studied by kinetic and lattice models. The third part reports the contribution
of research in the fields of virology, epidemiology, immune competition, and
economy focused also on social behaviours. Finally, a critical analysis is
proposed looking ahead to research perspectives.
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