2015/15 | LEM Working Paper Series | |
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Business Cycles, Technology and Exports |
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Dario Guarascio, Mario Pianta, Matteo Lucchese and Francesco Bogliacino |
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Keywords | ||
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Business cycles, Innovation, Export, Three Stage Least Squares
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JEL Classifications | ||
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F41, F43, O31, O33, C3
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Abstract | ||
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This article shows – on both conceptual and empirical grounds - the
importance of business cycles in affecting key relationships between
innovation and international performance. While periods of upswing are
characterised by a well documented ‘virtuous circle’ between
innovation inputs, new products and export success, during downswings
most of the positive relationships and feedbacks tend to break
down. The findings of Guarascio et al. (2014) on the long-term
relationships between R&D, new products and exports are confirmed and
qualified with major novelties. But when the period of analysis is
split between periods of upswing and downswing - following Lucchese
and Pianta (2012) – significantly different relationships
emerge. These results are obtained through an approach that combines
several complementary perspectives. A Schumpeterian view on the
diversity of technological change allows to disentangle the
specificities and effects of innovation inputs and outputs, and of new
products and new processes. A structural change perspective on the
role of demand as a driver of innovation and on the importance of open
economies allows to link industries’ dynamics with international
competitiveness. A business cycle perspective crossing the two
previous appraoches sheds new light on the fragility of key economic
relationships and on the long term damage that recessions may cause to
the ‘virtuous circle’ of innovation and performance. The model we
propose links exports, R&D and innovation success in a system of three
simultaneous equations allowing for the presence of feedbacks loops
among key variables. The empirical test is carried out for the period
1995-2010 at the industry level, on 21 manufacturing and 17 service
sectors; country coverage includes Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the
Netherlands and the United Kingdom, representing a very large part of
the European economy.
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Downloads | ||
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