2016/23 | LEM Working Paper Series | ||||||||||||||||
Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics |
|||||||||||||||||
Tommaso Ferraresi, Andrea Roventini and Willi Semmler |
|||||||||||||||||
Keywords | |||||||||||||||||
technology shocks, employment, threshold vector autoregression,
generalized impulse response functions
|
|||||||||||||||||
JEL Classifications | |||||||||||||||||
E32, O33, C32, E63, E20
|
|||||||||||||||||
Abstract | |||||||||||||||||
In this work, we investigate the interrelations among technology,
output and employment in the different states of the U.S. economy
(recessions vs. expansions). More precisely, we estimate different
threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) models with TFP, hours, and
GDP, employing the latter as threshold variable, and we assess the
ensuing generalized impulse responses of GDP and hours as to TFP
shocks. We find that positive productivity shocks, while spurring GDP
growth, display a negative effect on hours worked at least on impact,
independently of the state of the economy. In the 1957-2011 period,
the effects of productivity shocks on employment are abundantly
negative in downturns, but they are not significantly different from
zero in good times. However, the impact of TFP shocks in different
business cycle regimes depends on the chosen sample: after the mid
eighties (1984-2011), productivity shocks increase hours during
recessions. Finally, we express and test some conjectures that might
have caused the changes in the responses in different time periods.
|
Downloads
|
|
| |
|
Back
|
|